The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali reveals the following:
Beit Sahour – Public Relations Office
The poll that included a random sample of 950 Palestinian adults i.e. over 18 years old from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank including East Jerusalem and was carried out in the period May 5-12, 2011, reveals that 79.7% of Palestinians support the reconciliation agreement that was signed in Cairo.
President of the PCPO Dr. Nabil Kukali stated that achieving the ambitions of Palestinians necessitates measures that will establish principles of reconciliation in addition to sincere efforts and a national and responsible volition that will place national interests as a top priority. Dr. Nabil Kukali also stated that such ambitions can be achieved within a democratic framework and by promoting national unity based on partnership and political pluralism, and in accordance to laws and by employing the mass media in favor of the national interest. Dr. Nabil Kukali added that this will be the only way that will lead us out of the status of the political divide that harmed our political, cultural, social and economic situation and also affected our relations with the countries that support our issue. Dr. Kukali also stated that world countries are required to support the reconciliation process for the latter will promote democracy and stability in the area.
Dr. Kukali pointed out to the fact that Israel has to comply by the economic agreement that was signed between Israel and the Palestinian Authority PA in Paris Paris Protocol regarding taxes and customs and has to remit all dues to their owners, since adding more economic restrictions on Palestinians will escalate violence in the region, something that the result of this poll reveals where 70.5% of Palestinians expect a break out of a third Intifada had Israeli- Palestinian negotiations reached a deadlock. When comparing this percentage with that of a previous poll that was conducted this time of last year and was published on May 5, 2010 revealed that 72.2 % of Palestinians opposed a break out of a third Intifada as opposed to 22.8 % who supported it. The effect of the Palestinian youth through the “Facebook” under the title “A third Intifada in commemorating the Nakba catastrophe” seems obvious and has clearly affected the results of this poll given the impact the popular movements in the Arab world had on the Palestinian society.
Dr. Kukali added that like people in other Arab countries, Palestinians yearn for freedom and independence and aspire to get rid of the occupation and establish united and strong country.
Dr. Kukali stated that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians 81.0 % believe that Israel is the party that will gain the benefit most from any Palestinian- Palestinian internal divide and will give it a leeway to avert international pressure and to avoid compliance to previous commitments. He also stated that such a divide will give a pretext to Israel to question the ability of Palestinians to establish their state and to sustain that there is no possibility to make peace with them. Dr. Kukali said that Israel claimed that it wanted to establish peace with a strong and united Palestinian leadership and not with two conflicting parties.
Dr. Kukali also stated that a plurality 53.0 % of Palestinians believe that Dr. Salam Fayyad is the best candidate for being the prime minister in the next cabinet 61.7 % in the West Bank as opposed to 38.6% in the Gaza Strip.
Dr. Kukali added that Dr. Fayyad also combated corruption and money grafting in addition to his possessing a clear vision and gaining the respect of the international community. Dr. Kukali added that Palestinians perceive Dr. Fayyad as a person who is capable of boosting the Palestinian economy, rebuilding Gaza, and setting up the security establishment on a solid ground towards building an independent state.
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When asked “ In your opinion, how the events that took place in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya and in other Arab countries would affect the chance of Palestinians in establishing an independent state, would they positively or negatively affect that chance?” 55.3% say they will have a positive effect, as opposed to 20.1% who say the opposite, and 23.3% believe they make no difference, and 1.3% do not know.
Resuming Peaceful Negotiations
When asked “ In your opinion, which of the following means is the best to end the occupation and lead to the establishing of an independent Palestinian state” 32.1% of the respondents are in favor of negotiations until an agreement between the two parties is reached, whereas 25.0% are in favor of the non-violent popular resistance, 12.4% through the United Nations, 23.1% by holding an international conference that will impose a solution on all parties, 5.0% are for military operations, and 2.4% otherwise.
Peace with the Israelis
When asked “Do you expect that a peace agreement will be reached between Israelis and Palestinians in the next year?” a plurality 60.5% say yes to a certain degree, 23.8% say no, 14.2% say yes, and 1.5% “do not know”.
When asked “ Are you more optimistic or pessimistic than before in terms of reaching a final solution between Israel and the Palestinians” 15.4% express more optimism than before, 35.7% remain as optimistic, 24.8% remain as pessimistic, 21.9% are more pessimistic, and 2.2% do not know.
Failure of Settlement Efforts
When asked “What is your view regarding the resuming of launching Al-Qassam missiles from Gaza into Israel?” 13.8% say they strongly support, whereas 16.0% somewhat support, 27.1% somewhat oppose, 42.5% strongly oppose, yet 0.2% express no opinion.
When asked “If new PA presidential elections are held, and Mahmoud Abbas was Fatah’s candidate, while Ismael Hanieh was Hamas’s candidate, whom would you vote for? More than half of the Palestinians 57.8% will vote for Mahmoud Abbas, whereas 13.1% will vote for Ismael Hanieh. However, 26.0% say they will not cast their ballot, and 3.1% say “I do not know”.
When asked “ If competition in the elections was between Fatah’s candidate Marwan Barghouthi, and Hamas’s candidate Ismael Hanieh, whom would you vote for?” 55.4% say they would vote for Marwan Barghouthi, whereas 13.5% would vote for Ismael Hanieh, 28.5% will not cast ballot, and 2.6% express no opinion.
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Methodology of the Survey Study:
Miss Rana Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies’ Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents’ homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least five hours a’ day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper presentation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using the Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of 155 election sites, from which 110 are located in the West Bank and 45 sites in Gaza Strip.
Miss R. Kukali has further established that the margin of error in this poll was ± 3.18% at a confidence level of 95%. She added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was 49.5% and that of the male respondents was 50.5%. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was 63.2% in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and 36.8% in Gaza Strip, allocated as follows: 52.2 % urban areas, 30.8% rural areas and 17.5% refugee camps. The average age of the sample respondents was 32.4 years.
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