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Poll No. 163
Date: 25
November, 2007

The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali on Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference revealed that:

(67.6 %) support to various degrees the participation of the Palestinian leadership in Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference.
(68.2 %)   oppose the waiver of the Right of Return.
(54.4 %) believe that the failure of Annapolis Conference would lead to instability and turmoil in the region.
(58.6 %) believe that Ehud Olmert is not seeking a genuine peace with the Palestinians.
(59.0 %) oppose the further station of the Israeli army in the Jordan Valley.

In the most recent public opinion poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) during the period from October 27th to November 6th, 2007, a random sample of 1200 Palestinian adults (over 18 years old), representing the various demographic specimen of the Palestinian society in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, was face-to-face interviewed. The most significant finding was that only half of the Palestinians, specifically (51.0 %), support the Palestinian Authority to launch negotiations for permanent peace deal with Israel.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, in his capacity as founder and director of PCPO, said that one of the most important results of the poll was that (54.4 %) of the Palestinians believe that the failure of Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference would lead to malignant consequences for the whole region and that there would be no other opportunities to start a new initiative in the foreseeable future. He added that the Palestinian public is aware of the importance of the Palestinian participation in this conference since (68 %) are supporting the Palestinian Authority to take part. Dr. Kukali further suggested that there is a conservative, cautious optimism for the success of this conference. The outcome shows, generally, that the Palestinians still stick to their national immovable issues such as the right of return, no relinquishment of any territories in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the issue of Jerusalem and the holy sites. In conclusion Dr. Kukali said that the US administration has to prove its determination of ending the Arab-Israeli conflict by exerting more pressure on the Israeli side to implement the UN resolutions on the issues of the final solution, as well as the Arab Initiative adopted by the Arab League.

All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondent’s homes, i.e. face to face”, Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were takes from a total of (125) election sites. These election sites are randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These sites in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO’s long experienced methodology. The sampling error throughout the survey is found at (± 2.83%). Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female respondents was (48.9%) whereas that of the male respondents reached (51.1%). He said that the composition of the sample according to the type of residence was as follows: (51.3%) city, (31.5%) village, (17.2%) refugee camp. Elias Kukali added that the distribution of the random sample among the residential areas of the respondents was (63.4%) in the West Bank, incl. East Jerusalem, and (36.6%) in Gaza Strip.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

Up to which extent do you agree to or oppose each of the following items should there be in the near future a public referendum on a peace agreement with the Israelis?

West Bank and Gaza Strip:

01)  Israel would keep 4 % of the West Bank and Gaza Strip area, which contains 80% of the Israeli settlements. As an exchange for that, Israel would offer the Palestinians 2% of its land adjacent to Gaza Strip. Would you support or oppose this deal?

Response

Percent

1. Support.

21.2

2. Oppose.

72.2

3. Don't know.

6.6

East Jerusalem:

02)  Living quarters inhabited by Arabs in East Jerusalem should be put under the Palestinian jurisdiction, the Jewish quarters to be annexed to Israel. Would you support or oppose this?

Response

Percent

1. Support.

40.6

2. Oppose.

52.7

3. No opinion.

6.7

The Old City of Jerusalem:

03)  Upon dividing the Old City of Jerusalem between Israel and the Palestinians, Israel would keep the "Wailing Wall" (Western Wall), the Jewish and the Armenian quarters. A special arrangement would be made for the area of the Temple Mount (area of Al-Aqsa Mosque).  Would you support or oppose this?

Response

Percent

1. Support.

18.7

2. Oppose.

72.5

3. Don't know.

8.8

Jordan Valley:

04)  The Israeli settlements in Jordan Valley would be dismantled, but the Israeli army would remain in the Jordan Valley area for the period of five years, after which- should calm reigns over the said region during this period- the Israeli forces would be replaced by international forces. Would you support or oppose this?

Response

Percent

1. Support.

31.3

2. Oppose.

59.0

3. No opinion.

9.7

The right of home-return:

05)  Presuming that the Palestinian State would take up the Palestinian refugees. Israel, with other countries, would establish an international fund for the compensation of those refugees, who want to return under the Palestinian jurisdiction and can't return to their original homeland in Israel. Would you support or oppose such a settlement of the Palestinian refugees problem?

Response

Percent

1. Support.

23.5

2. Oppose.

68.2

3. Don't know.

8.3

06)  If the government of Ehud Olmert would present a declaration of principles for a peace deal after 4 – 5 months, and this declaration of principles would contain all the items you have agreed to beforehand. Would you then support or oppose such a peace deal? 

Response

Percent

1. Support.

27.6

2. Somewhat support.

34.3

3. Somewhat oppose.

21.0

4. Oppose.

14.5

5. Don’t know.

2.6

07)  The US-government is planning to hold an international peace conference in Annapolis / USA after one or two months with the target to advance peace between Israel on the one side and the Palestinians and the Arab countries on the other side. Do you think this conference will succeed or fail to achieve peace between Israel and the Palestinians?

Response

Percent

1. Will certainly succeed.

12.0

2. Will somewhat succeed.

38.0

3. Will certainly fail.

34.4

4. Will somewhat fail.

11.9

5. Dont know.

3.7

08) Which of the two routes the Palestinian Authority must pursue at the coming Annapolis Conference:  Negotiations for a permanent peace or general principles for subsequent negotiations? 

Response

Percent

1. Negotiations for a permanent peace.

50.8

2. Only general principles for subsequent negotiations.

35.2

3. Not to attend the conference.

14.0

09) Is it necessary – according to your opinion – that the Palestinian Authority enters into permanent peace negotiations with Ehud Olmert right now or are these negotiations already too late? 

Response

Percent

1. Certainly possible.

5.5

2. Possible.

43.3

3. Not possible.

26.5

4. Certainly not possible.

22.4

5. Dont know.

2.3

10)  Do you think it's possible or not possible to reach a peace settlement with the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the leaders of Kadima and Labor Party?

Response

Percent

1. Certainly possible.

8.5

2. Possible.

43.1

3. Not possible.

28.9

4. Certainly not possible.

18.0

5. Dont know.

1.4

11)  Do you think the Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is seeking a genuine peace with the Palestinians, or not?

Response

Percent

1. He certainly does.

6.0

2. I guess he does.

35.3

3. I guess he doesn’t.

37.3

4. He certainly doesn’t

21.4

14)  Do you support, or not, the participation of the Palestinian leadership in the Annapolis International Middle East Peace Conference to be held in the coming few weeks?

Response

Percent

1. Yes, I strongly support.

18.5

2. Yes, I somewhat support.

49.1

3. No, I somewhat oppose.

15.6

4. No, I strongly oppose.

15.5

5. I don't know.

1.3

Total

100

15)  Do you think that the failure of Annapolis International Peace Conference would lead to the destabilization of the Palestinian Territories?

Response

Percent

1. Yes, I think so.

22.6

2. Yes, I think it's likely.

31.8

3. No, I don't think so.

38.3

4. I don't know.

7.3

Total

100

16) Do you think that the failure of Annapolis International Peace Conference would lead to the resignation of the PA President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, and to the fall of Mr. Salam Fayyad's government?

Response

Percent

1. Yes, I think so.

17.5

2. No, I don't think so.

64.9

3. I don't know.

17.6

Total

100

17) What do you think are the success chances of the coming international conference regarding the Palestinian – Israeli conflict? (Give your answer in % from 1 – 100%) Open question: 39.7 %.