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Poll No. 157
Date: 02 August, 2006 |
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A survey prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali has revealed :
* An overwhelming majority (76.5%) evaluate the general economic
condition in the Palestinian territories as "bad".
* A clear majority (68.8%) believe that the suspension of the financial
and economical aid will increase the rate of violence in the region.
* A substantial majority (57.7%) Of the Palestinians are at present in
favor of a cease-fire between Palestinians and Israelis.
* An overwhelming majority (70.0%) Support at various degrees the PA-President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, and (62.3 %) support the Palestinian
PM Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh.
* A clear majority (66.7%) Of the Palestinians believe that the
International Observers' Team at Rafah border-crossing are acting
according to Israel's wish.
* A substantial majority (58.2%) Are pessimistic about the possibility of
improving their economic conditions at present.
* A plurality (51.6%) believe that the Arab countries are incapable of
replacing the financial and economical aid suspended by the donor
countries.
* An overwhelming majority (81.4%) call on the US-Americans and the
European countries to reconsider their decision halting the financial and
economical aid to the Palestinian government.
Beit Sahour – from the InformationSection
In the latest survey prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, a random sample consisting of 1.000 Palestinian adults over 18 years old representing the various demographic specimens of the Palestinian society living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, has been interviewed during the period (22 – 29) July, 2006. The survey result has shown that an overwhelming majority of the Palestinian people, reaching the rate of (76.5%), evaluated the general economic condition as "bad".
Dr. Kukali said the most significant finding of the survey outcome is that a clear majority of the Palestinians are in favor of concluding a cease-fire deal with the Israelis and that a consensus on the so-called "Prisoners' Document" could be a substantial step towards the commencement of serious peace negotiations with the Israelis. Dr. Kukali further indicated that a high rate of the survey respondents reaching (68.8%) believes that the halt of the financial assistance accelerates the degree of violence in the region. The said rate is allocated as follows: (65.8%) in the West Bank and (74.0%) in Gaza Strip. In addition, Dr. Kukali said, the view of the Palestinians now towards the possibility of improving their economic conditions is more pessimistic compared with the outcome of a poll conducted in April 2006, when the pessimists were at (43.1%) whilst the optimists reached the rate of (55.6%). On the other hand, the result of this poll shows that the rate of the pessimists rose up to (58.2%) while that of the optimists fell down to (40.3%).
The Cease-fire:
A clear majority (57.7%) of the Palestinian people are at present in favor of a cease-fire deal between the Palestinians and the Israelis, whilst (38.4%) oppose that and (3.9%) refused to respond to the question.
The "Prisoners' Document":
A clear majority (58.6%) of the respondents are of the opinion that the consensus reached on the Prisoners' Document may constitute a substantial step towards the start of serious peace negotiations with Israel with the target of reaching a final solution, whilst (37.5%) had a contrary opinion and (3.9%) hesitated to answer.
(36.9%) of the Palestinian society are extremely satisfied with the extent of consensus the Palestinian parties and factions have reached on the Prisoners' Document. (48.3%) were "somewhat satisfied", (9.5%) "Somewhat unsatisfied", (4.0%) "Extremely unsatisfied" and (1.3%) answered "don't know".
Almost half of the Palestinians, specifically (47.8%), think that the reservation of the Islamic Jihad about the extent of the consensus the other Palestinian parties and factions reached in respect of the Prisoners' Document may serve the Palestinian national interests, whilst exactly the same rate said that the position of the Islamic Jihad on this issue "does not serve the Palestinian national interests". (4.4%) declined to respond.
Aid and Violence:
A clear majority (68.8%) of the Palestinian people believe that the halt of the foreign financial and economical aid to the Palestinian government will increase the rate of violence in the region, whilst (9.9%) said "it will decrease it" and (20.2%) think "it will have no effect at all", and only (1.1%) didn't respond.
Significance of the US-American and European Aid:
Regarding the question: "Up to which extent the US-American and European financial and economical aid contribute in general to the well-being of the Palestinian people ?", (43.6%) said "To a high degree", (37.9%) "To a mediocre degree", (11.3%) "To an unimportant degree", (6.4%) said "Nil", and (0.8%) "Don't know".
Reconsidering the decision:
Around one - third (33.9%) of the respondents said "their view to the US and to the EU would be high positive if these countries would reconsider their decision of halting their financial and economical aid to the Palestinian government, while (28.9%) "would have a moderate positive view", (36.1%) said "their view would remain unchanged", and (1.1%) abstain.
Al-Qassam Rockets:
A plurality (49.9%) of the respondents opposed the call of President Mr. Mahmoud Abbas for a halt of firing Al-Qassam rockets from Gaza Strip at Israeli territories, whilst (47.8%) favored that and (2.3%) refused to answer.
The International Observers' Team:
Two thirds of the Palestinians, namely (66.7%), believe that the international observers' team monitoring the Rafah border-crossing are acting according to Israel's wish, whilst (31.3 %) said they run the border-crossing impartially and (2.0%) answered "I don't know".
Supporting the Palestinian Leadership:
Responding to the question: "What is the extent of your support at present to the positions of the PA-President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas?", (26.3%) said "I strongly support him", (43.7%) "Somewhat support him", (20.3%)
"Somewhat don't support him", (9.2%) "Strongly don't support him" and (0.5%) said "I don't know".
Regarding the question: "What is the extent of your support at present to the positions of the Palestinian Prime Minister Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh?", (31.7%) answered "I strongly support him", (30.6%) "Somewhat support him", (24.5%) "Somewhat don't support him", (11.8%) "Strongly don't support him" and (1.4%) said "I don't know".
Optimism and Pessimism:
Responding to the question:" Several months after the formation of the present Palestinian government under Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh as its Prime Minister, are you – upon viewing a possible improvement of the economic conditions – more optimistic or more pessimistic than in the past? ", (17.0%) said "more optimistic", (23.3%) said they "remained optimistic as in the past", (25.5%) said they "remained pessimistic as in the past" whilst (32.7%) answered they "are more pessimistic than in the past" and (1.5%) said "I don't know".
Financial and economical aid of the Arab countries:
A clear majority (51.6%) of the respondents said "the Arab countries are incapable of replacing the financial and economical aid suspended by the Europeans and US-Americans to the Palestinian government, whilst (46.9%) said "they are capable of doing that", and (1.5%) declined to respond to the question.
What donor countries should do:
An overwhelming majority (81.4%) of the respondents called on the governments of the US and the EU to continue their financial and economical aid to the Palestinian government, while (15.2%) called for halting the aid to the government, and (3.4%) hesitated to answer the question.
The economic condition:
Asked about their opinion of the general economic condition in the Palestinian territories, (76.5%) of the Palestinians evaluated it as "bad", (19.2%) described it as "mediocre", only (3.4%) gave it the rating "good" and (0.9%) declined to respond to the question.
Methodology of the Survey Study:
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies' Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (150) election sites, from which (110) sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission. These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology.
Mr. E. Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (±3.0%) at a significance and confidence levels of (5%) and (95%) respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (48.2%) against (51.8%) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (62.4%) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (37.6%) in Gaza Strip, and allocated as follows: (50.9%) for the towns, (31.8%) for the villages and (17.3%) for the camps.
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