Untitled Document

Latest Poll:

Poll No. 150
Date: 26 March, 2006

Dear Madam,
Dear Sir,

It's our pleasure to contact you today on the 12th anniversary of the foundation of our polling and research center, the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, by sending to you the results of our poll no. 150.

The target of this present poll is to examine the Palestinian public opinion for a set of burning key issues, especially after the victory of Hamas in the last legislative elections. It is pressing to know which issues, duties or policies the Palestinians demand from Hamas to implement in the coming few weeks. It is furthermore important to know the people's attitude towards the extension of the constitutional competencies and jurisdictions of the PA-President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, and the grade of his popularity, and the possible participation of Fateh in the coming government with Hamas. Last but not least, this poll examined the behaviour of the Palestinian voter in the light of the discrepancy between the forecast poll results and the real outcome of the elections.
We in the PCPO do believe that we have made with this poll a further step towards the democratization of the Palestinian society, and a further step also, so tiny it may be, towards the achievement of peace in our region.

If you wish to view the whole poll results, so all you need is to revert to our website: www.pcpo.ps
Please feel quite free to contact us immediately if you have any questions or inquiry on any issue of this poll.

With our good wishes and best regards,

Dr. Nabil Kukali
Director of PCPO

In a recent study on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali

(51.5%) are in favour of Fateh's participation in a government of a national unity.
(69.6%) support to various degrees the PA president, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas.
(41.5%) are of the opinion that Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh is the best personality to lead the coming Palestinian government.
(83.3%) oppose to various degrees the waiver of the right of home-return.
(69.8%) are in favour of the resumption of the negotiations with Israel.
(93.8%) demand from Hamas to improve the economic conditions and to abate the rate of unemployment.
(80.4%) are in favour of the continuation of the ceasefire with Israel.
(69.6%) trust to various degrees the local public opinion polls.
(17.2%) changed their mind upon voting for the candidates of the electoral districts on the election day, and (14.0%) did the same upon voting for the national lists.
(50.8%) agree to various degrees the recognition of the State of Israel by Hamas.

Beit Sahour: Information Section

For the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) during the period from February 16 – 20, 2006, a random sample of (1003) Palestinian adults over 18 years old representing the different demographic specimen of the people living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip was interviewed. The poll results have shown that the majority of the Palestinian people is in favour of the participation of Fateh in a government of a national unity with Hamas. Dr. Nabil Kukali, the director of PCPO, said the most important findings of the poll is that the majority of the Palestinians is in favour of granting the PA President broader constitutional competencies and added that (54.9%) believe that the condition of the Palestinian society after the victory of Hamas in the legislative elections will become better than at present.

Dr. Kukali further pointed out that (41.5%) of the Palestinians (54.7% in Gaza Strip and 39.4% in the West Bank) are of the opinion that Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh is the best personality to lead the coming Palestinian government.

The first task the Palestinian people unanimously demand from Hamas is the improvement of the economic condition and the abatement of the rate of unemployment, Dr. Kukali said. This is followed in the rank of importance by: combating the corruption, enforcing reforms and changes to the governmental performance, putting an end to the phenomenon of lawlessness, prevalence of security and safety, collection of the unlicensed weapons, imposition of the sovereignty of the law, the continuation of the ceasefire with Israel, resumption of the peace process and the halt of firing Al-Qassam rockets from Gaza, he added. Dr. Kukali further indicated that (83.3%) of the Palestinians (89.8% in Gaza and 79.8% in the West Bank) oppose to various extents the waiver of the right of home-return and its substitution by the financial compensation of the refugees instead, and added that the majority of the Palestinian people oppose the phenomenon of abduction of foreigners and the attack on the offices of the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH) and on the residences of the European Union in Gaza in the background of the abuse of prophet Mohammed by Danish media.

Dr. Kukali explained that the discrepancy arising between the forecast polling results and the outcome of the legislative elections is attributable to a series of factors, the most important of which in the rank of their substance are as follows: (a) the voters didn't tell the truth about their real intentions for whom they are voting when asked about that by the interviewers; (b) the intention of the voters to cast their votes against Fateh for Hamas, however not for other minor lists, and (c) the change of the voters' mind in the last minute before balloting. "The findings of this present poll came to explain the discrepancy between the results of the poll conducted before January 25th, 2006 and the real outcome of the elections, namely (14.0%) of the voters changed their mind when voting for the national lists and (17.2%) did the same when voting for the candidates of the electoral districts", Dr. Kukali remarked. These rates of "changing one's mind in the last minute" were in the West Bank with 19.3% at the level of the electoral districts much higher than in Gaza with only (4.2%); and the rate at the level of the national lists reached in the West Bank (23.1%) against (5.9%) in Gaza Strip, he added. In conclusion, the results of the poll show clearly that a considerable rate of the Palestinian people, namely (69.6%) still trusts to various degrees the local polls.
Findings

Q.1 Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are in favour of the participation of Fateh in a government of national unity with Hamas. Others oppose that. Which of the following two options is next to your opinion?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Participation of Fateh in the formation of the coming government.	51.5%
2. Non-participation of Fateh in the formation of the coming government.	48.5%

Q.2 What is the degree of your support at present to Mr. Mahmoud Abbas?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Strongly support him	18.1%
2. Somewhat support him	51.5%
3. Somewhat don't support him	18.1%
4. Strongly don't support him	8.8%
5. Don't know	3.5%

Q.3 Are you in favor of granting the Palestinian President more extended constitutional competencies, or not?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Yes	51.3%
2. No	45.3%
3. Don't know	3.4%

Q.4 Which personality you think is efficient to preside the upcoming Palestinian cabinet?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Ismael Haniyyeh	41.5%
2. Mahmoud Al-Zahar	12.1%
3. Khaled Mish'al	7.4%
4. Salam Fayyad	6.7%
5. Marwan Bargouthi	6.5%
6. Mohammad Dahlan	5.8%
7. Ahmed Sa'adat	3.6%
8. Mustafa Barghouthi	3.1%
9. Azeez Aldweak	1.9%
10. Saeb Ereikat	1.5%
11. Other	9.9%

Q.5 Hereunder is a series of reasons, which could have conduced to the discrepancy between the forecast poll results and the actual results of the Palestinian legislative elections. Which of these reasons are plausible (answer please with "yes") and which are implausible (answer please with "no") for you personally ?

Response	Yes	No	Don't Know
1. The candidates and the different lists were not convincing to the people.	58.8%	40.5%	0.7%
2. The voters didn't tell the truth about their real intentions, for whom they were going to vote, when asked by the interviewers.	71.7%	27.8%	0.5%
3. The partiality of the research and polling centers for certain candidates or lists.	35.7%	59.9%	4.4%
4. The voters changed their mind in the last moment.	63.1%	35.7%	1.2%
5. The intention of the voters to ballot against Fateh for Hamas, but not for other minor parties or factions, believing that these are incapable of effecting a substantial change in the electoral representation.	65.2%	32.7%	2.1%
6. Non-compliance of the constituencies supporting various streams with their candidates and lists, and therefore voted randomly.	52.4%	46.2%	1.4%
7. Ambiguity in the understanding of the electoral system. People couldn't differentiate between "electoral districts" and "proportional representation".	41.0%	56.8%	2.2%
8. The big number of the candidates in the electoral districts confused the voters.	50.0%	49.7%	0.3%
9. Unintended statistical errors committed by the research and polling centers.	31.5%	64.2%	4.3%

Q.6 Are you interested in the polls which are conducted in the territories of the Palestinian Authority, or not?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Very interested	19.5%
2. Somewhat interested	51.5%
3. Somewhat not interested	16.5%
4. Absolutely not interested	11.4%
5. I don’t know	1.1%

Q.7 Up to which extent in general do you trust what you read and/or hear from the polls carried out in the Palestinian territories?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Too much trust	12.3%
2. Somehow trust	57.3%
3. Don’t trust them so much	19.0%
4. Don’t trust them at all	10.0%
5. I don’t know	1.4%

Q.8 I am going to read to you a series of policies and duties, which Hamas could follow. I would like you to tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of them.

Response	strongly agree	somewhat agree	somewhat disagree	strongly disagree	Don't know
1. Continue the truce with the Israelis.	48.5%	32.0%	11.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2. Improve economic conditions and diminish unemployment.	71.0%	22.8%	5.7%	0.3%	0.2%
3. Combat corruption.	72.6%	17.5%	8.8%	0.9%	0.2%
4. Recognize the State of Israel.	16.1%	34.7%	17.0%	31.5%	0.7%
5. Cease fire Al-Qassam rockets at Israel from Gaza.	27.7%	34.5%	25.8%	10.6%	1.4%
6. Resume the peace process with Israel.	32.2%	37.5%	20.0%	9.5%	0.8%
7. Employ new Hamas activists in the PA	37.4%	36.7%	18.8%	5.4%	1.7%
8. Collect unlicensed weapons.	54.7%	29.7%	11.8%	2.9%	0.8%
9. Carry out reforms and changes in the PA.	61.1%	24.1%	11.5%	2.8%	0.5%
10. Apply force against such groups or organizations that violate the truce conditions.	29.2%	24.2%	29.4%	16.0%	1.2%
11. Put an end to lawlessness and enforce security and safety.	64.7%	19.7%	12.1%	2.8%	0.7%
12. Impose the sovereignty of law everywhere.	64.8%	17.3%	11.9%	5.6%	0.4%
13. Waive the "right of home-return" and accept financial compensation instead.	5.5%	10.3%	17.8%	65.5%	0.9%
14. Pass the "Law of Parties"	32.3%	27.1%	20.6%	14.0%	6.0%

Q.9 Please express your attitude towards the phenomenon of abducting foreigners and Arabs in the Palestinian territories, whatever the reasons may be.

Response	28 February 2006
1. Strongly support	2.9%
2. Somewhat support	15.8%
3. Somewhat oppose	26.0%
4. Strongly oppose	52.6%
5. Don't know.	2.7%

Q.10 Do you approve or disapprove of the attacks carried out on the bureaus of the European Union in Gaza Strip in the background of the abusive cartoons of Prophet Mohammed published by the Danish newspapers?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Approve.	35.3%
2. Disapprove.	62.7%
3. Don't know.	2.0%

Q.11 A group of school pupils attacked recently in Hebron the residence of the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH) in a protest against the abusive prophet Mohammed cartoons. Do you think that the way that protest has been made is of benefit to the basic issue, or not?

Response	28 February 2006
1. It's of benefit to the basic issue.	20.5%
2. It's of no benefit to the basic issue.	76.9%
3. Don't know.	2.6%

Q.12 In view of the political and economical conditions the country at present undergoes, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Optimistic.	62.4%
2. Pessimistic.	30.8%
3. Don't know.	6.8%

Q.13 Will the Palestinian society, according to your opinion, be in the next weeks after the victory of Hamas in the recent legislative elections?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Better than at present.	54.9%
2. Unchanged.	30.7%
3. Worse than at present.	11.8%
4. Don't know	2.6%

Q.14 In the recent legislative January 25th election, for which of the following lists or list combinations did you vote?

Response	28 February 2006
1. National List of Change and Reform (Hamas) and its candidates in the electoral districts.	28.1%
2. National List of Change and Reform (Hamas) and some of Hamas candidates, plus independents, in the electoral districts.	11.5%
3. National List of Change and Reform (Hamas) and candidates of Fateh in the electoral districts.	5.8%
4. Other national lists (excluding Fateh & Hamas) and candidates of Hamas in the electoral districts.	4.1%
5. Fateh national list and candidates of Hamas in the electoral districts.	8.0%
6. Fateh national list and its candidates in the electoral districts.	22.3%
7. Fateh national list and some of Fateh candidates and Independents in the electoral districts.	8.8%
8. Other national lists (excluding Fateh and Hamas) and candidates of Fateh in the electoral districts.	2.0%
9. Other national lists (excluding Fateh and Hamas) and in the electoral districts candidates of minor political parties and independents.	3.8%
10. Refuse / Don't know	5.6%

Q.15 In the elections held on January 25th, 2006, did you vote for the national list you have already decided before, or did you change your mind when you have cast your vote?

Response	28 February 2006
1. My decision remained unchanged.	86.0%
2. I changed my decision.	14.0%

Q.16 If your answer to the above-mentioned was that you have changed your decision; please tell me when did this change happen?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Inside the polling-booth.	7.5%
2. Before entering the polling-booth	22.4%
3. On the eve of the election day	21.6%
4. Two days before the election day	23.1%
5. 3 – 4 days before the election day	7.5%
6. 5 – 6 days before the election day	9.7%
7. A week or more before the election day.	8.2%

Q.17 What are the reasons that let you change your mind and vote on the Election Day for another list than the one decided before?

Response	28 February 2006
1. The wish of the spouse (wife/husband)	8.9%
2. The wish of the family	12.6%
3. Being convinced by a friend.	13.3%
4. Effect of the election campaign.	8.1%
5. The element of relationship.	11.9%
6. Material enticement.	15.6%
7. Enticement into a job.	2.2%
8. Presentation of a symbolic gift.	3.7%
9. Personal conviction.	17.7%
10. Provision of facilities by the candidate for the transport of voters on the election day.	3.0%
11. Otherwise, please specify	3.0%

Q.18 In the election held on 25.1.2006, did you vote for the district candidate you have already decided before, or did you change your mind when casting your vote?

Response	28 February 2006
1. My decision remained unchanged.	82.8%
2. I changed my decision.	17.2%

Q.19 If your answer to the above-mentioned was that you have changed your decision; please tell me when did this change happen?

Response	28 February 2006
1. Inside the polling-booth.	6.0%
2. Before entering the polling-booth	18.7%
3. On the eve of the election day	29.5%
4. Two days before the election day	25.9%
5. 3 – 4 days before the election day	5.4%
6. 5 – 6 days before the election day	7.8%
7. A week or more before the election day.	6.7%

Q.20 What are the reasons that let you change your mind and vote on the Election Day for another candidate(s) than the one(s) you have decided before?

Response	28 February 2006
1. The wish of the spouse (wife/husband)	7.1%
2. The wish of the family	11.9%
3. Being convinced by a friend.	16.7%
4. Effect of the election campaign.	3.6%
5. The element of relationship.	20.2%
6. Material enticement.	9.5%
7. Enticement into a job.	1.8%
8. Presentation of a symbolic gift.	3.0%
9. Personal conviction.	19.6%
10. Provision of facilities by the candidate for the transport of voters on the election day.	1.8%
11. Otherwise, please specify	4.8%

Methodology
"All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face", Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were taken from a total of (156) site. These sites are randomly chosen in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology. The margin of error was (±3.1%) at a significance and confidence levels of (5%) and (95%) respectively.
Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female respondents was (49.3%) whereas that of the male respondents reached (50.7%). He said the composition of the sample according to the residential area was as follows: (65. 4 %) West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (3 4 . 6 %) Gaza Strip. Average age of the random sample of the respondents was (35.0) years.
Mr. E. Kukali further pointed out that the allocation of the sample in respect of the type of residence was as follows: (51.1%) city, (33.4%) village and (15.5%) refugee camp. Number of individuals currently living in the house (of all ages): (6.97) person. The distribution of the sample with regard to the marital status of the respondents was as follows: (25.3%) single, (69.5%) married and (5.2%) otherwise.