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Poll No. 149
Date: 23 January, 2006 |
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Dear Madam,
Dear Sir,
The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) is pleased to announce the results of poll no. 149, which is focusing on the knowledge of the Palestinians’ tendencies and inclinations towards their favorite national list for the PLC - election. We hope that this survey will be of benefit to you, and please don’t hesitate in sending us your comments.
If you wish to view the whole poll results, so all you need is to revert to our website: www.pcpo.ps
Assuring you our best services now and in future, we remain
Dr. Nabil Kukali
Director of PCPO
In the latest poll conducted on the eve of the Palestinian Legislative Council elections, prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali:
(39.6%) Would vote for Fateh list in the proportional representation system.
(28.8%) Would vote for the list of "Change and Reform" (Hamas).
(7.7%) Would vote for the Independence List.
(7.2%) Would vote for the List of Alternative (coalition of DFLP, People's Party and "FIDA")
Beit Sahour: Information Section
In the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) in the period from (18 – 21) January 2006, i.e. few days before the election day, a random sample of (2389) Palestinian adults over 18 years was included, representing the various demographic models of the Palestinian society in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. “All interviews”, said Dr. Kukali, Director of PCPO, “took place on the basis of random choices of respondents’ homes, i.e. face to face. The choices were takes from a total of (208) election sites, from which (155) sites are located in the West Bank and (53) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Committee. These election sites are randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These sites in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from that regions in accordance with PCPO’s long experienced methodology. The sampling error through-out the whole survey was found at (±2.0%) at the (95%) confidence interval. The percentage of female respondents was (49.1%) whilst that of the male ones was (50.9%). He said the composition of the sample according to the residential area was as follows: (60.3%) West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (39.7%) Gaza Strip.
Dr. Kukali pointed out that the “response to the poll question about the choice of one national list for the PLC election was conducted in a secret way. The respondents were asked to put a mark on the right side of the chosen list and to drop the “voting-sheet” into a closed box, specially designed for that purpose. Every respondent was requested to vote honestly in the same intent as he/she would do on Wednesday, January 25th, 2006. i.e. on the Election Day. The poll is said to be considered as pre-voting.”
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the PCPO, said that Fateh proportional list has obtained (37.3%) in the West Bank and (43.4%) in Gaza Strip, while Hams list scored (29.5%) in the West Bank and (27.8%) in Gaza Strip, the list of Independent Palestinian attained (8.5%) in the West Bank and (6.2%) in Gaza Strip, and The Alternative List (DFLP, People's Party, "FIDA") (Al Badeel) obtained the support of (5.6%) in the West Bank and (10.1%) in Gaza Strip.
Elias Kukali said, “The following figures would be the outcome for each of them”:
List |
Gender |
Total |
Male |
Female |
1. The Alternative List (DFLP, People's Party, "FIDA") (Al Badeel) |
7.5% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
2. National Initiative List (Independent Palestine) |
7.2% |
8.1% |
7.7% |
3. List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) |
4.5% |
5.2% |
4.9% |
4. List of Martyr Abu El-Abbas (Palestinian Liberation Front) |
0.6% |
1.0% |
0.8% |
5. List of Freedom and Social Justice (Popular Struggle Front) |
1.2% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
6. List of Change and Reform (Hamas) |
27.5% |
30.2% |
28.8% |
7. List of National Coalition for Justice and Democracy (Independent) |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
8. List of the Third Way (Independent), headed by Salam Fayyad and Hanan Ashrawi. |
5.3% |
4.1% |
4.7% |
9. List of Freedom and Independence (ArabPalestinian Front) |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
10. List of Palestinian Justice (Independent) |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
11. List of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (FATEH) |
40.7% |
38.3% |
39.6% |
12. A blank sheet |
3.4% |
3.2% |
3.3% |
The results of the poll where as follows:
1) Balloting at the next PLC-elections will be in two systems. Half of the seats for the constituencies (election of individuals), the other half for the proportional representation, which means voting for one list,
For which list you intend to vote in the proportional representation system?
List |
District |
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
1. The Alternative List (DFLP, People's Party,"FIDA") ( Al Badeel) |
5.6% |
10.1% |
7.2% |
2. National Initiative List (Independent Palestine) |
8.5% |
6.2% |
7.7% |
3. List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) |
6.0% |
2.9% |
4.9% |
4. List of Martyr Abu El-Abbas (Palestinian Liberation Front) |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
5. List of Freedom and Social Justice (Popular Struggle Front) |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
6. List of Change and Reform (Hamas) |
29.5% |
27.8% |
28.8% |
7. List of National Coalition for Justice and Democracy (Independent) |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
8. List of the Third Way (Independent), headed by Salam Fayyad and Hanan Ashrawi. |
3.8% |
6.2% |
4.7% |
9. List of Freedom and Independence (ArabPalestinian Front) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
10. List of Palestinian Justice (Independent) |
1.1% |
0.2% |
0.8% |
11. List of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (FATEH) |
37.3% |
43.4% |
39.6% |
12. A blank sheet |
5.0% |
0.5% |
3.3% |
2) Distribution of the sample according to the rate of support attained by each of the national lists in all the governorates.
Governorates |
List of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (FATEH) |
List of Change and Reform (Hamas) |
National Initiative List (Independent Palestine) |
The Alternative List (DFLP, People's
Party, "FIDA") ( Al Badeel) |
List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) |
1. Jenin |
7.1% |
8.7% |
4.9% |
5.2% |
10.3% |
2. Nablus |
9.1% |
9.9% |
16.4% |
9.8% |
12.1% |
3. Ramallah |
7.6% |
8.6% |
10.9% |
4.6% |
14.7% |
4. Bethlehem |
5.3% |
4.9% |
3.8% |
4.6% |
5.2% |
5. Jerusalem |
3.4% |
3.6% |
4.4% |
2.3% |
4.3% |
6. Hebron |
14.0% |
14.4% |
15.8% |
11.6% |
12.1% |
7. Jericho |
1.3% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
1.7% |
8. Tulkarem |
5.5% |
6.2% |
5.5% |
4.6% |
8.6% |
9. Tubas |
1.9% |
2.3% |
1.6% |
1.2% |
1.7% |
10. Qalqilia |
2.3% |
2.5% |
2.2% |
1.7% |
3.4% |
11. Salfit |
2.0% |
2.3% |
3.3% |
2.3% |
3.4% |
12. Gaza City |
11.2% |
16.1% |
7.7% |
16.2% |
8.6% |
13. North Gaza |
6.2% |
7.0% |
12.6% |
11.6% |
2.6% |
14. Deir El Balah |
7.4% |
3.0% |
1.6% |
8.1% |
5.2% |
15. Khan Yonis |
10.6% |
5.1% |
2.7% |
6.4% |
2.6% |
16. Rafah |
5.1% |
4.4% |
5.5% |
9.2% |
3.4% |
Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
3) Distribution of the sample among the governorates.
Governorates |
Total |
1. Jenin |
7.6% |
2. Nablus |
10.0% |
3. Ramallah |
8.4% |
4. Bethlehem |
4.8% |
5. Jerusalem |
3.8% |
6. Hebron |
14.0% |
7. Jericho |
1.3% |
8. Tulkarem |
5.8% |
9. Tubas |
2.1% |
10. Qalqilia |
2.6% |
11. Salfit |
2.7% |
12. Gaza City |
12.3% |
13. North Gaza |
7.2% |
14. Deir El – Balah |
5.3% |
15. Khan Yonis |
7.4% |
16. Rafah |
4.9% |
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