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Poll No. 148
Date: 18 January, 2006

Dear Madam,
Dear Sir,

The target of this poll is to investigate the inclinations and directions of the Palestinian people towards their support of the lists participating in the upcoming legislative elections. Furthermore, it's the intention to probe the attitude of the Palestinian society towards the serious illness of Mr. Sharon and its impact upon his new Kadima party and the peace process. Add thereto the hot issues of the ceasefire and the buffer-zone in the north of Gaza Strip.

If you wish to view the whole poll results, so all you need is to revert to our website:  www.pcpo.ps

Please feel quite free to contact us immediately if you have any questions or inquiry on any issue of this poll.

With our good wishes and best regards,

Dr. Nabil Kukali
Director of PCPO

The latest public opinion poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali

(35.9 %) would vote for Fateh list, (26.7 %) for the "Change and Reform" list (Hamas)
(8.3 %) would vote for the list of "Independent Palestine", (7.5 %) for the "Alternative" list.
(79.3 %) support at various degrees the resumption of the negotiations with the Israelis.
(65.3 %) support the continuation of the ceasefire with Israel.
(68.4 %) support at various degrees the PA-president, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas.
(31.1 %) believe that Sharon's serious illness may lead to a retrogression in the peace process.

Beit Sahour: Information Section

This latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali has been conducted and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion during the period from (9 – 15) January 2006, specifically before the commencement of the election campaigns. It included a random sample of (1276) Palestinian adults over 18 years old who are registered in the Voter List and represent demographic specimen of the Palestinian people living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip.

The results of the poll revealed that Fateh list of proportional representation obtained the biggest popular support, namely (35.9%), followed by Hamas List, which scored (26.7%) in the second position. The Independence List and the List of Alternative (coalition of DFLP, PP and "Fida") attained the third and fourth positions with (8.3%) and (7.5%) respectively.  The List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa came to the fifth position followed by the List of the Third Way.

Dr. Kukali has indicated that Fateh and Hamas were able to maintain the same rate of support they attained according to previous polls conducted before the start of the election campaign. The two political movements couldn't however convince independent people to vote for them, for it seems that other parties preceded Fateh and Hamas in gaining the trust of these people.

Dr. Kukali, Director of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, added that the most important results his poll has revealed is that a considerable rate of respondents supports the resumption of negotiations with Israel and the continuation of the ceasefire. He mentioned that (56.4%) of the Palestinians believe that the establishment of a buffer-zone in the north of Gaza by Israel is an expression of Israel's wish to continue the occupation of Gaza Strip. Furthermore, the majority of the Palestinian people are optimistic about the improvement of their economic conditions in the near future, and that about half of the Palestinian people evaluated their economic conditions as "bad", Dr. Kukali said.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

1) Balloting at the next PLC-elections will be in two systems. Half of the seats for the constituencies (election of individuals), the other half for the proportional representation, which means voting for one list,

For which list you intend to vote in the proportional representation system?

Response

18 Jan 2006

1. The Alternative List  (DFLP,  People's Party,   
    "FIDA") ( Al Badeel)

7.5%

2. National Initiative List  (Independent Palestine)

8.3%

3. List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP)

7.1%

4. List of Martyr Abu El-Abbas ( Palestinian Liberation Front)

0.6%

5. List of Freedom and Social Justice (Popular Struggle Front)

0.8%

6. List of Change and Reform (Hamas)

26.7%

7. List of National Coalition for Justice and Democracy  
    (Independent)

0.4%

8. List of the Third Way (Independent), headed by Salam Fayyad
    and Hanan Ashrawi.

4.1%

9. List of Freedom and Independence  (Arab Palestinian Front)

0.4%

10. List of Palestinian Justice (Independent)

0.8%

11. List of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (FATEH)

35.9%

12. Didn't decide yet.

2.2%

13. None of the above.

5.2%

2) What is the degree of your support of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas at present?

Response

18 January 2006

1. Strongly support

23.6%

2. Somewhat support

44.8%

3. Somewhat don't support

17.8%

4. Strongly don't support

13.1%

5. I don't know

0.7%

3) Do you think that Sharon's sickness and his inability to continue as a prime-minister of Israel would lead to a progress or to a retrogression in the peace process?


Response

18 January 2006

1. To a progress

22.0%

2. To a retrogression

31.1%

3. Wouldn't effect any change

42.6%

4. Don't know

4.3%

4) Do you think that the new Kadima-party founded by Sharon will lead to a progress or to a reaction in the peace process?

Response

18 January 2006

1. To a progress

36.0%

2. To a reaction

23.7%

3. No change will take place

38.7%

4. Don't know

1.6%

5) Do you think that the foundation of "Kadima" by Sharon is an indication of a positive change in his policy towards peace, or not?

Response

18 January 2006

1. Yes, I think so

32.6%

2. No, I don't think so

63.9%

3. I don't know yet

3.5%

6) Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip believe that the creation of a "buffer-zone" in the north of Gaza Strip by Israel is due to Israel's wish to continue the occupation of Gaza. Others believe that the reason for that is to prevent Palestinians from entering regions as to fire missiles at Israel. Which one is nearer to your opinion?

Response

18 January 2006

1. Israel wish to continue the occupation of Gaza Strip.

56.4%

2. To prevent the Palestinians entering regions, from where  
     they fire missiles against Israel.  

41.9%

3. I don't know

1.7%

7) Are you in favour at present of the resumption of the peace process with the Israelis?

Response

18 January 2006

1. Yes, strongly in favour

34.0%

2. Yes, somewhat in favour

45.3%

3. Somewhat not in favour

12.2%

4. No, strongly not in favour

7.3%

5. Don't know

1.2%

8) Do you think that Palestinians and Israelis have the right to live together in peace and security in this part of the world?

Response

18 January 2006

1. Yes

66.9%

2. No  

31.5%

3. don't know

1.6%

9) Do you support, or not, the continuation of the calm with Israel, provided that the two parties abide by it?

Response

18 January 2006

1. Approve

65.3%

2. Disapprove

29.0%

3. don't know

5.7%

10) Was your financial position during 2005?

Response

18 January 2006

1. better than the last year 2004

19.0%

2. at the same level as 2004

54.4%

3. worse than the last year 2004

23.7%

4. don't know

2.9%

11) Do you expect your financial position in the New Year 2006 to be?

Response

18 January 2006

1. better than the foregoing year 2005

46.1%

2. at the same level as 2005

34.4%

3. worse than the foregoing year 2005

12.1%

4. don't know

7.4%

12) How do you evaluate the general economic condition in the Palestinian territories?

Response

18 January 2006

1. Good

7.9%

2. Mediocre

43.1%

3. Bad

48.8%

4. don't know

0.2%

13) With respect to the political and economical conditions you are passing through nowadays, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future?    

Response

18 January 2006

1. Pessimistic

69.4%

2. Optimistic  

27.6%

3. don't know

3.0%

14) What is the grade of you content in general with your life? You have a scale from (1) to (10), where (1) stands for "extremely discontent" and (10) for "extremely content". Answer: (5.79)

A general view on the poll
"All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face", Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were taken from a total of (155) site. These sites are randomly chosen in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology. The sampling error throughout the survey is found at (±2.74%). Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female respondents was (47.9%) whereas that of the male respondents reached (52.1%). He said the composition of the sample according to the residential area was as follows: (60.3%) West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (39.7%) Gaza Strip. Mr. E. Kukali further pointed out that the allocation of the sample in respect of the type of residence was as follows: (49.7%) city, (30.6%) village and (19.7%) refugee camp. The distribution of the sample with regard to the marital status of the respondents was as follows: (29.6%) single, (62.9%) married and (7.5%) otherwise.