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Poll No. 147
Date: 04 January, 2006

The latest public opinion poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali on the upcoming elections of the Palestinian Legislative Council has revealed the following results:

(38.1%) Would vote for Fateh list in the proportional representation system.
(26.6%) Would vote for the list of "Change and Reform" (Hamas).
(9.2%)   Would vote for the Independence List.
(8.1%)   Would vote for the List of Alternative (coalition of DFLP, People's Party and "FIDA")
(60.8%) Believe that the legislative elections will be fair.           
(83.4%) Intend to participate in the PLC-elections.
(26.2%) Wish for this year the conclusion of peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

Beit Sahour: Information Section

This latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali has been conducted and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion during the period from 28.12.2005 till 2.1.2006, specifically before the commencement of the election campaigns. It included a random sample of 1200 Palestinian adults over 18 years old who are registered in the Voter List and represent demographic specimen of the Palestinian people living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip.

The results of the poll revealed that Fateh list of proportional representation obtained the biggest popular support, namely (38.1%), followed by Hamas List, which scored (26.6%) in the second position. The Independence List and the List of Alternative (coalition of DFLP, PP and "Fida") attained the third and fourth positions with (9.2%) and (8.1%) respectively.  The List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa came to the fifth position followed by the List of the Third Way.

A high rate of the Palestinian people, (83.4%), is intending to participate in the PLC-elections and a considerable rate believes that the legislative elections will be fair enough, Dr. Kukali mentioned. He added that a high rate of the Palestinian voters will choose in the electoral district balloting male and female candidates from one list and not from several lists. Dr. Kukali concluded his comments saying that the wish Palestinians hope to be realized in 2006 is the conclusion of a peace accord between the Palestinians and Israelis.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

1) New elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council will be held on 25/01/2006. Are you going to participate in these elections, or not?

Response

04 January 2006

1. Yes, I will 

83.4%

2. No,  I will not

8.7%

3. I didn't decide yet

7.9%

2) Do you think that the upcoming PLC-elections will be fair, or not?

Response

04 January 2006

1. Yes, fair

60.8%

2. No, not fair

27.6%

3. Don't know

11.6%

3)Balloting at the next PLC-elections will be in two systems. Half of the seats for the constituencies (election of individuals), the other half for the proportional representation, which means voting for one list,

For which list you intend to vote in the proportional representation system?

Response

04 January 2006

1. The Alternative List  (DFLP,  People's Party,  
"FIDA") ( Al Badeel)

8.1%

2. National Initiative List  (Independent Palestine)

9.2%

3. List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP)

4.0%

4. List of Martyr Abu El-Abbas ( Palestinian Liberation Front)

1.2%

5. List of Freedom and Social Justice (Popular Struggle Front)

2.0%

6. List of Change and Reform (Hamas)

26.6%

7. List of National Coalition for Justice and Democracy (Independent)

1.8%

8. List of the Third Way (Independent), headed by Salam Fayyad and Hanan Ashrawi.

2.6%

9. List of Freedom and Independence  (Arab Palestinian Front)

0.6%

10. List of Palestinian Justice (Independent)

1.5%

11. List of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (FATEH)

38.1%

12. Didn't decide yet.

4.3%

4) For whom you would vote in the system of the electoral districts (constituencies) for the election of the second half of the parliament seats?

Response

04 January 2006

1. Fateh candidates

39.5%

2. Hamas candidates 

27.4%

3. Independent candidates backed by the "Alternative List"

7.3%

4. National Initiative candidates

7.2%

5. PFLP candidates

4.7%

6. Candidates of the Popular Struggle Front

0.9%

7. Candidates of the Palestinian Liberation Front

0.9%

8. Independent male and female candidates

8.9%

9. Candidates of the Palestinian Arab Front

0.3%

10. Didn't decide yet.

2.9%

5) At the electoral districts elections (election of individuals), would you vote for male/female candidates from the one list or from several lists?

Response

04 January 2006

1. From one list

57.4%

2. From several lists

40.2%

3. I didn't decide yet

2.4%

6) In general, at what extent you may express your satisfaction with the performance of the Palestinian political organizations and parties at present?

Response

04 January 2006

1. Satisfied     

20.4%

2. Somewhat satisfied

48.8%

3. Unsatisfied

30.1%

4. Don't know

0.7%

7) What is the wish you hope to be realized in the New Year 2006?

Response

04 January 2006

1. Conclusion of peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis

26.2%

2. Getting a post / a job

12.3%

3. Freedom

20.9%

4. Safety and security

23.9%

5. Good health

10.3%

6. Traveling abroad

4.5%

7. Otherwise,  please specify

1.8%

A general view on the poll

"All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face", Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were taken from a total of (146) sites. These sites are randomly chosen in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology. The sampling error throughout the survey is found at (±2.82%). Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female respondents was (46.8%) whereas that of the male respondents reached (53.2%). He said the composition of the sample according to the residential area was as follows: (61.3%) West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (38.7%) Gaza Strip.

Mr. E. Kukali further pointed out that the allocation of the sample in respect of the type of residence was as follows: (50.6%) city, (31.1%) village and (18.3%) refugee camp. The distribution of the sample with regard to the marital status of the respondents was as follows: (29.2%) single, (63.1%) married and (7.7%) otherwise.