Untitled Document

Latest Poll:

Poll No. 145
Date: 23 November, 2005

Dear Madam,
Dear Sir,

This poll aims at probing the affinities, directions and inclinations of the Palestinian people for the continuation of the peace process with Israel, their attitude towards the conclusion of the accord for opening of Rafah border crossing in the presence of US Secretary of State, Mrs. Condollessa Rice and the representatives of the European Community, the elections of the Palestinian Legislative Council scheduled January 2006, the leaderships of the Palestinian parties, the popularity of the political parties and factions and the opinion of the Palestinians about the fairness and impartiality of the Central Elections Committee. This poll has been fully financed by PCPO own resources.

Please feel quite free to contact us immediately if you have any questions or inquiry on any issue of this poll.

With our good wishes and best regards,

Dr. Nabil Kukali
Director of PCPO

In the latest public opinion poll prepared by
Dr. Nabil Kukali and published by PCPO:

* A great majority (59.5%) of the Palestinians support the return to the negotiation table with the Israelis.

* For the first time a fall in the popularity of Hamas by (4.4 %) and Fateh maintains its rate of popularity.

* A great majority (54.5%) of the Palestinians support Rafah border crossing accord.

* An overwhelming majority (76.1%) of the respondents are going to participate in voting for the PLC-elections scheduled January 25th, 2006.

* A good majority (51.7%) of the Palestinians believe that the Central Elections Committee supervising the PLC-elections is fair and impartial

*A majority (52.6%) of the Palestinians support at various degrees the emergence of a third political stream on the Palestinian ground.

* A plurality (61.6%) of the participants support the stand of the national powers and leftists on one united list for running the coming PLC-
elections.

(33.7%) believe that Mr. Marwan Bargouthi is the most appropriate person for leading Fateh list to the PLC-elections.

(37.1%) believe that Dr. Mahmoud Azzahar is the most appropriate person for leading Hamas list to the PLC-elections.

(28.8%) believe that Dr. Mustafa Bargouthi is the most appropriate person for leading the leftists' list to the PLC-elections.

(18.3%) believe that the determination of making decisions is the most important quality for choosing a candidate in the coming PLC- elections.

From Majd Kokaly – Information Section

For the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) during the period November 16 – 21, 2005, a random sample of (830) Palestinian adults from the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip has been face to face interviewed. The poll result has revealed that (59.5%) of the Palestinians support the resumption of negotiations with the Israelis as to come to the Final Settlement.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of PCPO, said that the most important thing this poll has shown is that the majority of the Palestinians supports the return to the negotiations of the final settlement with the Israelis and that the rate now by far surpasses that of the Israelis, namely by (16.8%), according to a poll prepared by Teleseker and published by Maariv newspaper. The said Israeli poll has specifically unfolded that (43%) of the Israelis support the return to Oslo path and the negotiations with the Palestinians for reaching a final solution, whereas (53 %) oppose that, Teleseker said.

Dr. Kukali added that the majority of the Palestinians (54.5 %) supports the accord concluded with the Israelis regarding the opening of Rafah border crossing, and which has been attended by the US Secretary of State, Mrs. Condollessa Rice, and representatives of the European Community. One can notice from the results of this poll that the accord found with (64.8%) a more positive resonance among the population of the Gaza Strip in comparison with that of the West Bank (48.9%).

Dr. Kukali commented the poll results saying that a noticeable fall of (4.4%) in the popularity of Hamas has been recorded, compared with a previous poll conducted on 3/8/2005, and that this fall is the first of its nature since 1997, where from that date onwards the support to Hamas was increasing rapidly. On the other hand maintained Fateh Movement its rate of popular support.

The poll results have furthermore revealed that Mr. Marwan Bargouthi is the most appropriate person for leading Fateh candidates' list to the coming PLC-elections, polling (33.7%) in the West Bank (37.6%) and in Gaza Strip (26.7%), followed in the 2. position by Mr. Mohammed Dahlan, who scored a total of (18.1%) in the West Bank (12.3%) and in Gaza Strip (28.5%), and in the 3. position Dr. Saeb Erekat, who attained (5.4%) in the West Bank (6.5%) and in Gaza Strip (3.2%).

Dr. Kukali further said that Dr. Mahmoud Azzahar is polled to be the most appropriate man for leading Hamas candidates' list to the coming PLC-elections scoring (37.1%) in the West Bank (37.3%) and in Gaza Strip (36.6%). In the 2. position ranked Mr. Hassan Youssif with (17.5%) in the West Bank (25.3%) and in Gaza Strip (3.8%), and in the 3. position Mr. Ismael Haniyyeh, who obtained (13.7%) in the West Bank (5.4%) and in Gaza (28.3%).

As to the leadership of the leftists' movement, Dr. Mustafa Bargouthi is ranking with (28.8%) in the West Bank (28.7%) and (29.1%) in Gaza Strip in the first position, followed by Mr. Ahmed Sa'adat in the second position with (16.1%) in the West Bank (20.7%) and (8.4%) in Gaza Strip, and Mr. Tayseer Khaled with (9.6%) in the West Bank (10.3%) and (8.4%) in Gaza Strip.

in the third position. Regarding the Independents list, the poll results have shown that no public consensus has been formed yet on the leading candidates, since a high rate has no idea yet.

“All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondent’s homes, i.e. face to face”, Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were takes from a total of (118) election sites. These election sites are randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These sites in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO’s long experienced methodology. The sampling error throughout the survey is found at (± 3.40%). Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female respondents was (47.9%) whereas that of the male respondents reached (52.1%). He said that the composition of the sample according to the type of residence was as follows: (48.9%) city, (34.6%) village, (16.5%) refugee camp. Elias kukali added that the distribution of the random sample among the residential areas of the respondents was (64.2%) in the West Bank, incl. East Jerusalem, and (35.8%) in Gaza Strip.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

1) Are you with or against the accord concluded with the Israelis for the opening of Rafah border crossing in the presence of the US Secretary of State Condollessa Rice and representatives of the European Community?

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. With	48.9%	64.8%	54.5%
2. Against	36.8%	33.8%	35.8%
3. Don't know	14.3%	1.4%	9.7%

2) Are you with or against the resumption of the negotiations with the Israeli side for reaching a final settlement of the conflict?

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. With	50.7%	75.1%	59.5%
2. Against	35.3%	22.2%	30.6%
3. Don't know	14.0%	2.7%	9.9%

3) Are you going to participate in voting for the elections of the coming Palestinian Legislative Council scheduled January 25th, 2006 or not?

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Yes, I will	75.5%	77.1%	76.1%
2. No, I will not	13.7%	13.1%	13.5%
3. I didn't decide yet	10.8%	9.8%	10.4%

4) There are Palestinian political factions, parties and movements. Do you consider yourself:

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. One of their members	19.0%	30.3%	23.0%
2. One of their supporters	36.8%	32.0%	35.1%
3. Independent of them	37.2%	37.4%	37.3%
4. Don’t know / refuse	7.0%	0.3%	4.6%

5) The status of the Palestinian Judiciary system is:

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Good	23.2%	9.1%	18.0%
2. Mediocre	46.8%	42.4%	45.2%
3. Bad	27.3%	47.8%	34.8%
4. No Opinion	2.7%	0.7%	2.0%

6) Do you think that the Central Elections Committee, which will be supervising the PLC-elections, is:

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Independent and impartial	46.9%	60.3%	51.7%
2. Dependent and partial	39.5%	36.0%	38.3%
3. Don't know	13.6%	3.7%	10.0%

7) If elections were being held today, which political party would you vote for?

Response	03 Aug 2005	23 Nov,2005
1. People’s party	1.0%	1.2%
2. The popular front for the liberation of Palestine (PFLP)	4.1%	5.0%
3. Fatah	37.4%	37.5%
4. Hamas	26.9%	22.1%
5. The democratic front of the liberation of Palestine (DFLP)	2.3%	1.8%
6. The Islamic jihad	5.7%	2.7%
7. FIDA	2.1%	1.5%
8. popular struggle (Nidal) front	0.2%	0.6%
9. Palestinian Liberation Front	0.1%	0.4%
10. Arab Liberation Front	0.2%	0.1%
11. Liberation (Tahreer) Party	0.1%	0.2%
12. Independents	12.0%	18.6%
13. The Palestinian National Initiative	3.3%	3.5%
14. Other:	0.4%	0.5%
15. None of the above	4.2%	4.3%

8) Mention the name of the person you think he/she is the most appropriate one for leading Fateh list in the coming PLC-elections.

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Marwan Barghouthi	37.6%	26.7%	33.7%
2. Mohammad Dahlan	12.3%	28.5%	18.1%
3. Saeb Ereikat	6.5%	3.2%	5.4%
4. Ahmad Qrei’	4.9%	1.1%	3.5%
5. Nabil Sh’ath	2.7%	1.4%	2.2%
6. Hussam Khader	3.1%	---	2.0%
7. Farouq El-Qaddoumi	1.6%	1.1%	1.4%
8. Jibreel Rjoub	1.8%	0.4%	1.3%
9. Salah Al Tamaria	2.0%	---	1.3%
10. Ruhi Fattuh	4.9%	----	1.0%
11. Tayyeb Abdel Raheem	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%
12. Salam Fayyad	1.6%	---	1.0%
13. Nabil Amr	1.4%	0.4%	1.0%
14. Samir Mashhuwari	0.2%	2.2%	0.9%
15. Abdalla Al Farngi	----	2.2%	0.8%
16. Abbas Zaki	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%
17. Nasr Youssif	0.2%	0.7%	0.5%
18. Hani AL- Hassan	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
19. Ahmed Abd Alrahman	0.6%	-----	0.4%
20. Other	2.0%	---	8.9%
21. Don’t Know	16.2%	11.6%	14.5%

9) Mention the name of the person you think he/she is the most appropriate one for leading Hamas list in the coming PLC-elections.

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Mahmmod Al Zahar	37.3%	36.6%	37.1%
2. Hassan Youssif	25.3%	3.8%	17.5%
3. Ismael Haniyyeh	5.4%	28.3%	13.7%
4. Beshir El-Masri	2.1%	4.9%	3.1%
5. Khaled Mish'al	1.7%	5.3%	3.0%
6. Hamid El-Bitawi	3.6%	----	2.3%
7. Mohammed Nazzal	2.1%	----	1.4%
8. Sami Abu Zuhri	1.5%	----	1.0%
9. Usama Hamdan	0.6%	1.1%	0.8%
10. Other	2.4%	8.3%	4.5%
11. Don’t Know	17.8%	11.7%	15.6%

10) Mention the name of the person you think he/she is the most appropriate one for leading the list of the left-wing parties in the coming PLC-elections.

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Mustafa Barghouthi	28.7%	29.1%	28.8%
2. Ahmed Sa'adat	20.7%	8.4%	16.1%
3. Tayseer Khalid	10.3%	8.4%	9.6%
4.Bassam AlSalhi	9.3%	1.8%	6.5%
5. Abdulrahim Mallouh	2.8%	0.4%	1.9%
6. Saleh Ra'fat	---	4.4%	1.6%
7. Samir Ghosha	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%
8. Azmi El-Shu'bi	0.2%	1.8%	0.8%
9. Ahmed Jibril	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%
10. Zuhair Kamal	----	1.8%	0.7%
11. Nayef Hawatme	----	1.5%	0.5%
12. Other	2.4%	10.9%	5.6%
13. Don’t Know	24.1%	29.8%	26.3%

11) Mention the name of the person you think he/she is the most appropriate one for leading the list of the independents in the coming PLC-elections.

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Haider Abdel-Shafi	1.5%	21.5%	8.9%
2. Imad Al-Fallouji	0.3%	11.8%	4.5%
3. Abdulsattar Qassim	5.7%	---	3.6%
4. Yasser Abed Rabbo	3.6%	1.8%	2.9%
5. Kamal Asharafi	---	5.7%	2.1%
6. Sari Nusseibeh	2.1%	---	1.3%
7. Kamal Al-Baghdawi	-----	3.1%	1.1%
8. Muneeb El-Masri	0.8%	0.9%	0.8%
9. Ali El-Jerbawi	1.3%	----	0.8%
10.Sayyed Barake	---	2.2%	0.8%
11. Hanan Ashrawi	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
12. Hassan Khresha	---	1.3%	0.5%
13. Imad Hatmu	---	1.3%	0.5%
14. Mohammed El-Hindi	----	1.3%	0.5%
15. Raji Assourani	----	1.3%	0.5%
16. Rev. Dr. Atallah Hanna	0.5%	---	0.3%
17. Nabil Aljabari	0.5%	---	0.3%
18. Other	14.2%	17.5%	15.6%
19. Don’t Know	68.8%	29.4%	54.2%

12) People have recently talked about the necessity of the emergence of third political trend in the Palestinian society other than HAMAS and FATEH, do you agree with this tendency?

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Strongly agree	13.0%	20.2%	15.6%
2. Somewhat agree	39.8%	32.0%	37.0%
3. Somewhat disagree	22.9%	23.2%	23.0%
4. Strongly disagree	12.8%	22.2%	16.2%
5. Don’t know.	11.5%	2.4%	8.2%

13) National powers and independent personalities called upon the secretaries-general of the left-wing organizations to totally abstain from thinking of running the coming PLC- and municipal elections on separate lists, and demanded from them to stand on one unified list. Do you support this call, or not?

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Strongly support	16.8%	27.3%	20.5%
2. Somewhat support	41.4%	40.4%	41.1%
3. Somewhat don't support	22.8%	14.5%	19.8%
4. Strongly don't support	5.6%	13.1%	8.3%
5. Don't know	13.4%	4.7%	10.3%

14) Regarding the question:" Upon voting for the election of your candidate to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), how do you evaluate the importance of the following qualities of your candidate”? the following answers were given:

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1.for the capability of taking decisions	16.1%	22.2%	18.3%
2. for his/her political and economical programs	17.0%	16.8%	17.0%
3. for piety	12.2%	14.8%	13.2%
4. for honesty and uprightness	6.9%	23.6%	12.9%
5. for experience and qualification	15.3%	7.7%	12.6%
6. for the membership in a party	11.9%	5.7%	9.6%
7. for the role of the candidate in the national struggle era	9.6%	6.7%	8.5%
8. for the academic degree	7.1%	1.0%	4.9%
9. for the relationship and/or personal connections	3.3%	0.7%	2.3%
10. for the geographical area	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%

15) Do you believe that the Palestinian Political Parties have a broad popular support?

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. Yes	34.4%	39.4%	36.3%
2. To some extent	50.3%	46.1%	48.7%
3. No	12.7%	11.8%	12.3%
4. I have no opinion	2.6%	2.7%	2.7%

16) Do you eat outside your home? (Please choose one answer only)

Response	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Total
1. No	53.9%	48.5%	51.9%
2. Yes (twice a' week)	21.9%	10.8%	17.9%
3. Yes (once a' week)	7.8%	7.1%	7.5%
4. Yes (one in two weeks)	5.0%	7.1%	5.7%
5. Yes (once a' month)	8.2%	12.5%	9.7%
6. Yes (once in two or more months)	3.2%	14.1%	7.3%